Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Election 2008

I clicked through to SurveyUSA from a political newsletter. The tagline asked which DEMOCRAT would be the strongest! The answer is John Edwards of NC! No other contender stands much of a chance against the leading candidates for the Republican side.

The nomination of John McCain is only slightly weaker than for Rudy Guilani. A race between John McCain and John Edwards would likely be down to the wire (the guy in the corner is the CEO of SurveyUSA):

272-266! Wow! In this race one state, any state, going to Edwards would either TIE (3 votes) or give him the win. This would be 2000 and 2004 all over again. (Clicking above will bring you to the home page of SurveyUSA.)

With the two New Yorkers, however, it is surprisingly Guiliani all the way!

However, consider these figures:

Two-way race: Guliani over Clinton (354-184), BUT:

14+8+11+13+9+7+9+32=94 [the total votes of the deep south (NC,TN,GA,AL,LA,and TX)]

354-94=260 [Ten votes short of the majority of 270 needed to win]

In what I had surmised would be a tight race between the New Yorkers, Guiliani is the clear favorite by the SurveyUSA polls. But if there is a solid third party candidate with the drawing power of, say, a modern day Teddy Roosevelt, the Senate might have to make the call! I can't see the deep south going for a moderate Republican like these polls show if there is another choice thrown in. Just for fun, I put myself in the picture as the "favorite son" of the South.

A realistic choice might be John McCain, but then I would have to change the colors to reflect AZ and NM (and given that choice SC probably WOULD go with Guiliani!) That would change the count to 184-92-262.

Well, the next two years will be interesting, that is for sure!

No comments: